Oil markets stay in double digits despite 2.6 billion barrels lost since the US‑Israel war with Iran.

Since the US‑Israel war with Iran began in late February, the world lost more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil, an amount equal to about a month of normal global crude production. The Strait of Hormuz, a major choke point for oil shipments, was closed for several months, disrupting supply. Crude oil prices stayed in double‑digit ranges and only once approached the 100 USD per barrel mark, remaining well below the 200 USD level that some analysts had warned could be reached if the Strait stayed blocked. The head of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, warned that "global inventories were running low" despite emergency measures to cushion the blow. China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, sharply reduced its imports and drew on strategic reserves. Jefferies reported that electric vehicles displaced an estimated 1.4 million barrels per day in China during the first half of 2026, a rise that helped shrink overall demand. The International Energy Agency noted similar drops in oil demand from EV adoption and predicted further increases to 2.7 million barrels per day by 2030. China’s imports fell to 8.1 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, 32 % lower than the prior quarter and below 8 million barrels per day for the first time since 2016. The combination of lower demand, reserve releases, and reduced Chinese imports kept the market from extreme spikes during the five‑month disruption.